Seleccione otro país
Bienvenido a Lyxor España
Por favor, lea la información importante aquí incluida antes de continuar a nuestra página web

Información relevante 

Los Lyxor ETFs presentados en la página web de lyxoretf.com, pueden ser objeto de restricciones en lo que respecta a la inversión por determinadas personas o en determinados países, en virtud de las distintas regulaciones nacionales aplicables a dichas personas o en dichos países. Cualquier persona que acceda a esta página web desde una jurisdicción en la cual se aplican dichas restricciones tiene que informarse al respecto y observar dichas restricciones. Por consiguiente, le corresponde a usted asegurarse de que, efectivamente está autorizado a invertir en los Lyxor ETFs presentados en esta página web. Invirtiendo en estos productos, usted garantiza a Société Générale que está efectivamente autorizado a invertir. Inversores españoles se deben dirigir a www.lyxoretf.es

La información contenida en esta página web no constituye una oferta o invitación para adquirir o vender los productos aquí descritos a personas sometidas a  jurisdicciones donde:

(a) dicha oferta o invitación no esté autorizada;
(b) Lyxor Asset Management no esté cualificada para hacer dicha oferta o invitación;
(c)  sea ilícito hacer dicha oferta o invitación.

Los ETFs referidos en esta página web no han estado y no estarán registrados conforme al U.S Securities Act de1933, por lo tanto, no pueden ser ofertados ni vendidos en los EE.UU sin registro previo o solo en caso de excepción de registro conforme al  al Securities Act. Por consiguiente, los ETFs listados en esta página web no pueden ser vendidos a “U.S persons”, ni transferidos a los Estados Unidos a menos que dicha transacción esté sujeta a los requisitos de registro conforme a la ley Americana.

Esta página web es de carácter comercial y no de carácter legal. No se garantiza la exactitud, exhaustividad o pertinencia de la información aunque ha sido establecida a partir de fuentes consideradas como fiables.
La información presentada en esta página web se basa en información de mercado constada en un momento dado que puede variar con posterioridad a su publicación. El valor de reembolso de los Lyxor ETFs puede ser inferior al montante de la inversión inicial. En el peor de los casos, los inversores podrían perder hasta la totalidad de su inversión, por lo que se recomienda a los inversores consultar la sección« factores de riesgo » del folleto del producto. El precio de algunos Lyxor ETFs puede ser sensible a riesgos de tipo de cambio entre la cotización del ETF y/o la divisa del índice y/o la divisa del componente del índice.

Todos los LyxorETFs presentados en esta página web han sido aprobados por la “Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF)” y son objeto de un folleto aprobado por la AMF y pasaporteado en la CNMV conforme a la Directiva 2003/71/CE. Dichos folletos están disponibles en esta página Web.

La documentación relativa a los Lyxor ETFs preverá métodos de ajuste y de sustitución para tener en cuenta que consecuencias tendría cualquier suceso extraordinario que afecte a uno o varios de los subyacentes de estos productos.

Antes de invertir en un Lyxor ETF, usted debe hacer su propia valoración del riesgo desde un punto de vista legal, fiscal y  contable, sin depender exclusivamente de la información que le proporcionamos y consultando, si lo estima necesario, sus propios asesores en la materia o cualquier otro asesor independiente.

El inversor de ETFs estará expuesto a los siguientes factores de riesgo: Riesgo de pérdida del capital invertido, al no existir ninguna garantía, como consecuencia de un movimiento desfavorable del Índice de Referencia, Riesgo de que el objetivo de gestión solo se cumpla parcialmente, Riesgo de contrapartida como resultado de la utilización de los instrumentos financieros (OTC) formalizados con un establecimiento de crédito. Se recomienda a los inversores que consulten la sección del folleto antes de invertir.

En la medida en que cumpla con la legislación aplicable, ninguna entidad del Grupo Société Générale acepta responsabilidad alguna por las consecuencias financieras o de cualquier otra naturaleza que resulten de la inversión en este producto.

Utilizamos las Cookies para asegurar el correcto funcionamiento de nuestro sitio web, y para recopilar datos estadísticos sobre usuarios de modo que podamos mejorar el sitio web. Si continúa navegando por este sitio web usted aceptará nuestro uso de las Cookies.Para más información o para modificar sus preferencias sobre CookiesHaga click aquí
17 ago 2017

Q3 2017 Outlook: Should you believe in fairytales?

 

Once upon a time in the West...  

So, where to begin? Macron’s march, May’s misery, Corbyn’s calamitous maths or Trump’s travails? Nothing is certain it seems in politics these days. Yet continued central bank support means bond and equity markets alike have largely taken it in their stride. Can the fairytale continue?

 

Hidden by headlines

About the only thing that isn’t overheating in the US right now is the economy. Sub-2.5% GDP growth allows the Fed to tighten “only” moderately, which is a burden for the dollar and a trigger for risk-taking elsewhere. And it comes at a time when economic growth in the euro area and Japan is accelerating and China’s policies remain supportive ahead of a potential leadership reshuffle at the all-important 19th Party Congress in the autumn. It all points to equities over bonds. 

The expected pre-summer acceleration of the US economy should also boost commodity prices. Closer to home, some Brexit pain is all but guaranteed. Consumer confidence could be dented and UK assets, especially sterling, could come under renewed pressure.

 

O ye of little faith

Some of the optimism over Trump’s spending plans has evaporated, rather like the detail, as overly positive soft data finally became decent hard data. Despite his seemingly daily struggles with Congress, we expect parts of his economic agenda to make it through, notably proposed tax cuts for individuals and businesses. Tax cuts are vote winners, so looming 2018 mid-terms will force the issue. There are other “wins” on the horizon as well, including the Treasury’s bold bank de-regulation plan, and revised health care legislation.  

Whether long-term success is likely is another question. Trump’s turbulent apprenticeship on the Hill is a strong incentive to diversify into regions where structural reforms have been implemented and are bearing fruit: the eurozone, Japan and, to some degree, those emerging markets which are seeing a recovery in their balance of payments.

 

Events to watch out for in H2 and beyond

 

Events to watch out for in H2 and beyond

*Lyxor CAR, July 2017.


Confident on commodities

The stronger global growth pulse could steel commodity prices, and finally tip the supply/demand balance in their favour. Should assets be less influenced by the dollar story and more by fundamentals, commodities - especially energy and industrial metals - stand to benefit from stronger economic growth in both developed and emerging markets.

OPEC attempts to curtail oil supply and therefore lift prices have to date been hampered by US shale production, but rig count should decline in H2 as weaker prices erode profitability. Wait for the right entry point. Copper prices, which have also been held back by oversupply, should climb as production capacity becomes more constrained.

 

Emerging into the light

The key external drivers for emerging markets – a tame Fed, a soft dollar and China – should linger for a while yet. Meanwhile, external vulnerabilities have receded, and growth prospects have improved. Be selective however, momentum is strong and valuations are already rich. Local monetary policies aren’t quite as supportive as they were. 

 

Advocating Asia

We still like Asia: valuations are not so stretched, earnings are recovering and liquidity conditions are supportive. We are however concerned about China’s financial stability, especially with the spectre of shadow banking rearing its ugly head again. Instead, we favour markets like Korea, where recovering earnings and fresh political leadership are set to revive the rally. Taiwan too is supported by better earnings prospects, foreign inflows and a turning in the electronics cycle. 

India also appeals, but lacklustre earnings growth could impede performance in the short term. In Japan, we favour small-caps because of their greater sensitivity to domestic economic improvements and their lesser sensitivity to movements in the yen.

 

Lift off in Europe...

Data seems to have turned in the eurozone. No longer is the region numbed by persistent pessimism; these days, investors are being wooed by rampant recovery. Growth is taking off, labour markets are mending and the credit cycle is expanding. All risk assets look attractive at this point, most obviously the sectors most closely linked to the recovery. We favour construction, consumer discretionary and banks. 

A caveat: inflation is still dormant. Regardless, the ECB can’t sit on its hands enjoying the sunny glow forever. Winter is coming – probably in the shape of €40bn per month fewer purchases throughout the first half 2018. Rate hikes look more distant. We’re idling in neutral on government bonds for now. Longer-term, we’re not confident on their outlook, but many have called the end of the bond bubble before us and we’re still waiting. Such is life.

...left out in the UK

Brexit negotiations are under way, and it’s already clear the path will be anything but smooth. We think people are being unduly complacent about the risks to growth. In our view, GDP growth will slow from 1.6% this year to 0.8% next. Inflation meanwhile should progress from 2.6% to 2.9% by year end 2018. This rise, and the acute uncertainty accompanying the Brexit talks, will hit consumption and weigh on activity. Although sterling has depreciated a lot already, we’re not sure the floor is in sight yet. 

 

Our key calls

United States

Commodities EM Japan

Eurozone UK

Gold

  • sU/W US Treasuries
  • Neutral S&P with defensive themes
  • O/W Growth vs. value O/W Minimum Variance
  • O/W Domestic vs. Global
  • U/W Small vs. Global
  • O/W HealthCare products & services
  • Neutral US High-yield for now. Lt negative
  • USD ST upside potential
  • Brent to end up in a $47-55 range
  • Tactical Buy Copper
  • Long Korea, Taiwan & India vs. China
  • Neutral EM debt: Prefer Argentina, Colombia, Indonesia
  • Neutral JP debt
  • Japan equities: prefer Topix small to Topix 100

  • Neutral on EMU Govies, turning negative
  • sO/W French OAT vs, German Bund
  • O/W Euro equity
  • sO/W Construction
  • sO/W Discretionary vs. Staples
  • Tactical Long Greece. LT sO/W defence
  • sO/W Banks
  • Neutral+ EU High-yield
  • Neutral GBP & Gilts
  • sO/W UK breakeven
  • sU/W UK FTSE 250
  • sO/W Ireland

  • sO/W Gold as a possible hedge

Key: U/W = underweight, O/W = overweight, s= soft, ST = short-term, LT = long-term

Source: Lyxor CAR, July 2017

Disclaimers

All data sourced by: Lyxor & SG Cross Asset Research teams, July 2017. Opinions expressed are as at July 2017. 

This communication is for professional clients only.

This document is for the exclusive use of investors acting on their own account and categorised either as “Eligible Counterparties” or “Professional Clients” within the meaning of Markets In Financial Instruments Directive 2004/39/EC.

This document is of a commercial nature and not of a regulatory nature. This document does not constitute an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, from Société Générale, Lyxor International Asset Management or any of their respective affiliates or subsidiaries to purchase or sell the product referred to herein.

We recommend to investors who wish to obtain further information on their tax status that they seek assistance from their tax advisor. The attention of the investor is drawn to the fact that the net asset value stated in this document (as the case may be) cannot be used as a basis for subscriptions and/or redemptions. The market information displayed in this document is based on data at a given moment and may change from time to time. The figures relating to past performances refer or relate to past periods and are not a reliable indicator of future results. This also applies to historical market data. The potential return may be reduced by the effect of commissions, fees, taxes or other charges borne by the investor.

Lyxor International Asset Management (Lyxor ETF), société par actions simplifiée having its registered office at Tours Société Générale, 17 cours Valmy, 92800 Puteaux (France), 418 862 215 RCS Nanterre, is authorized and regulated by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) under the UCITS Directive and the AIFM Directive (2011/31/EU). Lyxor ETF is represented in the UK by Lyxor Asset Management UK LLP, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK under Registration Number 435658.

Connect with us on linkedin