Seleccione otro país
Bienvenido a Lyxor España
Por favor, lea la información importante aquí incluida antes de continuar a nuestra página web

Información relevante 

Los Lyxor ETFs presentados en la página web de lyxoretf.com, pueden ser objeto de restricciones en lo que respecta a la inversión por determinadas personas o en determinados países, en virtud de las distintas regulaciones nacionales aplicables a dichas personas o en dichos países. Cualquier persona que acceda a esta página web desde una jurisdicción en la cual se aplican dichas restricciones tiene que informarse al respecto y observar dichas restricciones. Por consiguiente, le corresponde a usted asegurarse de que, efectivamente está autorizado a invertir en los Lyxor ETFs presentados en esta página web. Invirtiendo en estos productos, usted garantiza a Société Générale que está efectivamente autorizado a invertir. Inversores españoles se deben dirigir a www.lyxoretf.es

La información contenida en esta página web no constituye una oferta o invitación para adquirir o vender los productos aquí descritos a personas sometidas a  jurisdicciones donde:

(a) dicha oferta o invitación no esté autorizada;
(b) Lyxor Asset Management no esté cualificada para hacer dicha oferta o invitación;
(c)  sea ilícito hacer dicha oferta o invitación.

Los ETFs referidos en esta página web no han estado y no estarán registrados conforme al U.S Securities Act de1933, por lo tanto, no pueden ser ofertados ni vendidos en los EE.UU sin registro previo o solo en caso de excepción de registro conforme al  al Securities Act. Por consiguiente, los ETFs listados en esta página web no pueden ser vendidos a “U.S persons”, ni transferidos a los Estados Unidos a menos que dicha transacción esté sujeta a los requisitos de registro conforme a la ley Americana.

Esta página web es de carácter comercial y no de carácter legal. No se garantiza la exactitud, exhaustividad o pertinencia de la información aunque ha sido establecida a partir de fuentes consideradas como fiables.
La información presentada en esta página web se basa en información de mercado constada en un momento dado que puede variar con posterioridad a su publicación. El valor de reembolso de los Lyxor ETFs puede ser inferior al montante de la inversión inicial. En el peor de los casos, los inversores podrían perder hasta la totalidad de su inversión, por lo que se recomienda a los inversores consultar la sección« factores de riesgo » del folleto del producto. El precio de algunos Lyxor ETFs puede ser sensible a riesgos de tipo de cambio entre la cotización del ETF y/o la divisa del índice y/o la divisa del componente del índice.

Todos los LyxorETFs presentados en esta página web han sido aprobados por la “Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF)” y son objeto de un folleto aprobado por la AMF y pasaporteado en la CNMV conforme a la Directiva 2003/71/CE. Dichos folletos están disponibles en esta página Web.

La documentación relativa a los Lyxor ETFs preverá métodos de ajuste y de sustitución para tener en cuenta que consecuencias tendría cualquier suceso extraordinario que afecte a uno o varios de los subyacentes de estos productos.

Antes de invertir en un Lyxor ETF, usted debe hacer su propia valoración del riesgo desde un punto de vista legal, fiscal y  contable, sin depender exclusivamente de la información que le proporcionamos y consultando, si lo estima necesario, sus propios asesores en la materia o cualquier otro asesor independiente.

El inversor de ETFs estará expuesto a los siguientes factores de riesgo: Riesgo de pérdida del capital invertido, al no existir ninguna garantía, como consecuencia de un movimiento desfavorable del Índice de Referencia, Riesgo de que el objetivo de gestión solo se cumpla parcialmente, Riesgo de contrapartida como resultado de la utilización de los instrumentos financieros (OTC) formalizados con un establecimiento de crédito. Se recomienda a los inversores que consulten la sección del folleto antes de invertir.

En la medida en que cumpla con la legislación aplicable, ninguna entidad del Grupo Société Générale acepta responsabilidad alguna por las consecuencias financieras o de cualquier otra naturaleza que resulten de la inversión en este producto.

Utilizamos las Cookies para asegurar el correcto funcionamiento de nuestro sitio web, y para recopilar datos estadísticos sobre usuarios de modo que podamos mejorar el sitio web. Si continúa navegando por este sitio web usted aceptará nuestro uso de las Cookies.Para más información o para modificar sus preferencias sobre CookiesHaga click aquí
09 feb 2018

How to prepare your portfolio for rising bond yields and inflation expectations


10-year treasury yields barely moved last year, despite three Fed rate hikes. As the early evidence this year suggests, this can’t last. Bond yields seem to have finally shaken off their indifference to policymakers’ steps towards monetary policy normalisation.

The global economy is in its best shape in a decade. The IMF has raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2018 and 2019, citing sweeping US tax cuts and their benefits to the world’s largest economy and its main trading partners. It’s no surprise bonds are in the eye of the storm. 

 

Nearing normal 

For all that, central banks are only likely to adjust their monetary policy stance gradually. Few will want to risk choking off a recovery they’ve tried so hard to stimulate. Many investors maintain some interest rate sensitivity via long-duration positions in their portfolios as a result. Staying true to this course may prove testing.  

US and German 10-yr yields are already up by around 25-30 basis points this year, although the less hawkish tone of the most recent central bank meetings suggests the pressure could abate at some point. In Europe at least, reflation dynamics and stronger growth now appear to be priced in. The European Central Bank’s (ECB) Public Sector Purchase Programme for 2018 still implies the bank will buy more debt than Germany will issue this year (on a net basis), which could also create a ceiling for yields, for now. We still expect them to rise everywhere though – albeit more gradually from here on in. 

 

Why bunds might outperform OATs in 2018

 

EMU Sovereign net on net issuance 

EMU Sovereign net on net issuance

 

Gross issuance minus redemptions and PSPP purchases, % of gross issuance, 2018 avg forecastof sell side research 

Source: Macrobond, Lyxor Cross Asset Research, February 2018.

 

The ECB position is crucial. As recovery gathers momentum, the bank is busily preparing to bring its era of QE to an end. This could happen as early as September, with a rate hike as early as the start of 2019. Economic expansion alone justifies policy normalisation steps, even if inflation remains sluggish. The market now prices a normalisation of the deposit facility rate to 0% in late 2019. More would mean a tightening of monetary policy in 2019, as opposed to rates normalisation only.

 

Readying for a new regime

In this environment, reducing interest rate sensitivity and defending against inflation by moving to those asset classes with positive expected returns is a natural move. As such, we prefer bonds of countries where inflation (or growth) is less likely to surprise to the upside and hasten more rapid rate rises. Japan appeals for example. We are also maintaining our position in peripheral eurozone bonds, believing tight spreads are unlikely to change while global risk appetite remains broadly buoyant. We favour Spanish bonds over Greek bonds, but politics clouds the issue for Italian BTPs yet again.

In the US, inflation expectations are increasing, helped by a tight jobs market (as seen in the January employment report). Wage inflation may finally be on the rise – especially if tax reform delivers as it architects believe it will. January data showed a 2.9% increase year-on-year in average hourly earnings. This, along with higher oil prices, could prompt a notable rise in US CPI from March or April onwards. We like US breakevens and may look at eurozone issues later in 2018. Floating rate notes, and smart cash products, could help deal with the threat of rising rates, as could short duration bonds.

With 10-year treasury yields touching 2.8%, 2-year treasury yields back at 2.05% for the first time since 2008 and the markets pricing in at least three hikes this year, we could be on the cusp of a regime shift. Yields of 3%+ on the 10-yr treasury now appear a question of when not if.

 

Finding it hard to take credit

Credit – notably high yield – remains a concern. Equity markets are reaching for the stars and credit spreads remain tight. Leverage has increased in both the US and Europe. Leverage alone does not create a credit crisis, but it does set the stage for one to occur. Debt growth has been outpacing GDP growth, and the most leveraged non-financial companies are those with the least cash. Furthermore, median balance sheet leverage in the US has returned to 2003 levels, i.e. the end of the telecoms crisis. As such, credit needs to be approached with caution.  We prefer European issues to their American counterparts given the ECB will keep a heavy hand in markets at least through September

The global expansion needs higher real rates. They are likely to rise slowly but surely from here, and there is room for more as central banks to adjust their monetary policy stance to the buoyant economy and rising asset prices. Bond investors, and bond yields, have been reluctant to accept this new environment, but this is set to change.

All views & opinions: Lyxor Cross Asset Research unless otherwise stated. Past performance is no guide to future returns. 

 

Risk Warning

THIS COMMUNICATION IS FOR ELIGIBLE COUNTERPARTIES OR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY

Fund and charge data: Lyxor ETF, correct as at 06 December 2017.

This document is for the exclusive use of investors acting on their own account and categorized either as “Eligible Counterparties” or “Professional Clients” within the meaning of Markets in Financial Instruments Directive 2004/39/EC. These products comply with the UCITS Directive (2009/65/EC). Société Générale and Lyxor International Asset Management (LIAM) recommend that investors read carefully the “investment risks” section of the product’s documentation (prospectus and KIID). The prospectus and KIID are available free of charge on www.lyxoretf.com, and upon request to client-services-etf@lyxor.com.

The products mentioned are the object of market-making contracts, the purpose of which is to ensure the liquidity of the products on the London Stock Exchange, assuming normal market conditions and normally functioning computer systems. Units of a specific UCITS ETF managed by an asset manager and purchased on the secondary market cannot usually be sold directly back to the asset manager itself. Investors must buy and sell units on a secondary market with the assistance of an intermediary (e.g. a stockbroker) and may incur fees for doing so. In addition, investors may pay more than the current net asset value when buying units and may receive less than the current net asset value when selling them. Updated composition of the product’s investment portfolio is available on www.lyxoretf.com. In addition, the indicative net asset value is published on the Reuters and Bloomberg pages of the product, and might also be mentioned on the websites of the stock exchanges where the product is listed.

Prior to investing in the product, investors should seek independent financial, tax, accounting and legal advice. It is each investor’s responsibility to ascertain that it is authorised to subscribe, or invest into this product. This document is of a commercial nature and not of a regulatory nature. This material is of a commercial nature and not a regulatory nature. This document does not constitute an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, from Société Générale, Lyxor Asset Management (together with its affiliates, Lyxor AM) or any of their respective subsidiaries to purchase or sell the product referred to herein.

Lyxor International Asset Management (LIAM), société par actions simplifiée having its registered office at Tours Société Générale, 17 cours Valmy, 92800 Puteaux (France), 418 862 215 RCS Nanterre, is authorized and regulated by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) under the UCITS Directive (2009/65/EU) and the AIFM Directive (2011/31/EU). LIAM is represented in the UK by Lyxor Asset Management UK LLP, which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK under Registration Number 435658. Société Générale is a French credit institution (bank) authorised by the Autorité de contrôle prudentiel et de résolution (the French Prudential Control Authority).

Research disclaimer

Lyxor International Asset Management (“LIAM”) or its employees may have or maintain business relationships with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that LIAM and its employees may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see appendix at the end of this report for the analyst(s) certification(s), important disclosures and disclaimers. Alternatively, visit our global research disclosure website www.lyxoretf.com/compliance.

CONFLICTS OF INTEREST This research contains the views, opinions and recommendations of Lyxor International Asset Management (“LIAM”) Cross Asset and ETF research analysts and/or strategists. To the extent that this research contains trade ideas based on macro views of economic market conditions or relative value, it may differ from the fundamental Cross Asset and ETF Research opinions and recommendations contained in Cross Asset and ETF Research sector or company research reports and from the views and opinions of other departments of LIAM and its affiliates. Lyxor Cross Asset and ETF research analysts and/or strategists routinely consult with LIAM sales and portfolio management personnel regarding market information including, but not limited to, pricing, spread levels and trading activity of ETFs tracking equity, fixed income and commodity indices. Trading desks may trade, or have traded, as principal on the basis of the research analyst(s) views and reports. Lyxor has mandatory research policies and procedures that are reasonably designed to (i) ensure that purported facts in research reports are based on reliable information and (ii) to prevent improper selective or tiered dissemination of research reports. In addition, research analysts receive compensation based, in part, on the quality and accuracy of their analysis, client feedback, competitive factors and LIAM’s total revenues including revenues from management fees and investment advisory fees and distribution fees.

Connect with us on linkedin