Seleccione otro país
Bienvenido a Lyxor España
Por favor, lea la información importante aquí incluida antes de continuar a nuestra página web

Información relevante 

Los Lyxor ETFs presentados en la página web de lyxoretf.com, pueden ser objeto de restricciones en lo que respecta a la inversión por determinadas personas o en determinados países, en virtud de las distintas regulaciones nacionales aplicables a dichas personas o en dichos países. Cualquier persona que acceda a esta página web desde una jurisdicción en la cual se aplican dichas restricciones tiene que informarse al respecto y observar dichas restricciones. Por consiguiente, le corresponde a usted asegurarse de que, efectivamente está autorizado a invertir en los Lyxor ETFs presentados en esta página web. Invirtiendo en estos productos, usted garantiza a Société Générale que está efectivamente autorizado a invertir. Inversores españoles se deben dirigir a www.lyxoretf.es

La información contenida en esta página web no constituye una oferta o invitación para adquirir o vender los productos aquí descritos a personas sometidas a  jurisdicciones donde:

(a) dicha oferta o invitación no esté autorizada;
(b) Lyxor Asset Management no esté cualificada para hacer dicha oferta o invitación;
(c)  sea ilícito hacer dicha oferta o invitación.

Los ETFs referidos en esta página web no han estado y no estarán registrados conforme al U.S Securities Act de1933, por lo tanto, no pueden ser ofertados ni vendidos en los EE.UU sin registro previo o solo en caso de excepción de registro conforme al  al Securities Act. Por consiguiente, los ETFs listados en esta página web no pueden ser vendidos a “U.S persons”, ni transferidos a los Estados Unidos a menos que dicha transacción esté sujeta a los requisitos de registro conforme a la ley Americana.

Esta página web es de carácter comercial y no de carácter legal. No se garantiza la exactitud, exhaustividad o pertinencia de la información aunque ha sido establecida a partir de fuentes consideradas como fiables.
La información presentada en esta página web se basa en información de mercado constada en un momento dado que puede variar con posterioridad a su publicación. El valor de reembolso de los Lyxor ETFs puede ser inferior al montante de la inversión inicial. En el peor de los casos, los inversores podrían perder hasta la totalidad de su inversión, por lo que se recomienda a los inversores consultar la sección« factores de riesgo » del folleto del producto. El precio de algunos Lyxor ETFs puede ser sensible a riesgos de tipo de cambio entre la cotización del ETF y/o la divisa del índice y/o la divisa del componente del índice.

Todos los LyxorETFs presentados en esta página web han sido aprobados por la “Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF)” y son objeto de un folleto aprobado por la AMF y pasaporteado en la CNMV conforme a la Directiva 2003/71/CE. Dichos folletos están disponibles en esta página Web.

La documentación relativa a los Lyxor ETFs preverá métodos de ajuste y de sustitución para tener en cuenta que consecuencias tendría cualquier suceso extraordinario que afecte a uno o varios de los subyacentes de estos productos.

Antes de invertir en un Lyxor ETF, usted debe hacer su propia valoración del riesgo desde un punto de vista legal, fiscal y  contable, sin depender exclusivamente de la información que le proporcionamos y consultando, si lo estima necesario, sus propios asesores en la materia o cualquier otro asesor independiente.

El inversor de ETFs estará expuesto a los siguientes factores de riesgo: Riesgo de pérdida del capital invertido, al no existir ninguna garantía, como consecuencia de un movimiento desfavorable del Índice de Referencia, Riesgo de que el objetivo de gestión solo se cumpla parcialmente, Riesgo de contrapartida como resultado de la utilización de los instrumentos financieros (OTC) formalizados con un establecimiento de crédito. Se recomienda a los inversores que consulten la sección del folleto antes de invertir.

En la medida en que cumpla con la legislación aplicable, ninguna entidad del Grupo Société Générale acepta responsabilidad alguna por las consecuencias financieras o de cualquier otra naturaleza que resulten de la inversión en este producto.

Utilizamos las Cookies para asegurar el correcto funcionamiento de nuestro sitio web, y para recopilar datos estadísticos sobre usuarios de modo que podamos mejorar el sitio web. Si continúa navegando por este sitio web usted aceptará nuestro uso de las Cookies.Para más información o para modificar sus preferencias sobre CookiesHaga click aquí
01 jun 2018

Europe’s policy storm: what it means for your bonds investments


In early 2018, as we looked down the road ahead, we expected to see rising US yields, and – with a lag – a similar dynamic in Europe. Indeed, because of the strong economic momentum in the US, Treasury yields have been rising. But now, Europe’s path is taking a different turn.

Political turbulence in Italy has pressured Eurozone bond yields. And to some, seeing the two-year Italian bond yield spike 35 basis points in one day rang unpleasant echoes of 2011-2012. At that time, in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis as Eurozone economies experienced widening deficits and were pressed to tighten their fiscal belts, the region dipped again into recession. This sparked a sell-off in sovereign debt in the periphery economies.

But we believe that we’re treading a very different path today. By mid-2016, Italy’s and Spain’s spreads over German bunds were neck and neck. But Italy’s spreads are now twice as high as Spain’s, whereas 2012’s sell-off was more uniform.

Markets are presently far more discriminating, with investors judging individual markets on fundamental metrics. Moreover, while fear that the Eurozone might fall apart drove the 2012 sell-off, this time it’s Italy’s specific situation that’s pushing up risk.

 

Political turbulence in Italy has hit the eurozone bond market in recent weeks 

 

                           chart 1

Source: Lyxor International Asset Management, ThomsonReuters Datastream. Data as at 30/05/2018 Past performance are not reliable of future performances. 

 

Could the Italian political storm put the eurozone itself at risk?

It’s certainly concerning that Italy’s traditionally pro-European population has turned increasingly Eurosceptic. Both La Lega and its coalition partner, the Five Star Alliance want to challenge the European Union, and spending promises in their manifesto would almost certainly break EU fiscal rules.

So far, the spread of contagion to Portugal, Spain or Greece has been more limited. Albeit Spain is suffering from its own problems, with its Prime Minister forced out of office by a no confidence vote in parliament on Friday 1st June. Mariano Rajoy's government is thus being replaced by a minority government led by PSOE's Pedro Sanchez. With less than a quarter of the seats in the lower house, political instability and inaction is likely.

The relative resilience of these other markets also suggests that countries that received financial assistance (either fully or only for their financial sector) may be on a better footing today (both in terms of public finances and economy growth) and are arguably better able to cope with another bout of market stress. 

In our view, the real make-or-break situation doesn’t lie in the future with Italy. Rather, it’s already happened – with Greece.

For Greece to have left the Union would have opened Pandora’s Box. But it is Mario Draghi’s forceful July 2012 statement that remains with us today: “The ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough.”

Whether the ECB would have made another similar statement today is debatable. 

 

US and Europe on diverging paths

Both on the short-end and the long-end of the yield curve, the gap between the US and the Eurozone is already widening; in the near term, we expect this to continue. In addition to benefiting from fiscal stimulus and high exposure to rising oil prices, the US economy is operating at full capacity and inflation is likely gain pace further.
So three more rate hikes may well be on the cards for 2018.

>>View our US Floating Rate Note ETF

Europe is still experiencing relatively high growth, with the region’s economy firmly in expansionary territory. But inflation is still below expectations, and the ECB is rightfully expressing a dovish monetary stance. We believe refinancing rates are not going to move higher before H2 2019, as that the shift in monetary policy will be very gradual.

Ultimately, the market deems it unlikely that Italy will opt to leave the EU, and Italian spreads have already eased down somewhat. However, this problem isn’t about to go away. We expect the political situation in Italy to generate protracted uncertainty, with spreads remaining elevated compared to their early-2018 levels.

So, for now, the paths diverge. But we maintain our conviction – and our hope – that the Eurozone moves forward as one.

Options left to fixed income investors

 

We believe investors have a number of options in this environment. The natural choice might be to look to peripheral European economies where yields are higher and appear to give some insulation. However, these are higher risk and there may be contagion if the problems in Spain and Italy escalate. As such, the protection is likely to be limited.

If the situation in Italy gets worse, few Eurozone fixed income markets will escape the turmoil, the highest rated market would prove more resilient. Another way to avoid it may be to look outside, like US Treasuries. The UK is also often ignored in this context, yet UK bonds are paying a much higher yield than Germany (1.26% versus 0.37% - Source: Bloomberg to 30 May 2018).

Investors can also look to go short the fixed income market. This helps those who are mandate-constrained and need have a fixed income allocation.

Looking ahead, the combination of political turmoil and changing sentiment from the ECB can only be a recipe for higher yields for non-core sovereign bonds whereas German Bund 10 year yield has dropped below 0.5%. This is an uneasy time to be a Eurozone fixed income investor.

 

All views & opinion, Lyxor Equity & SG Cross Asset Research/ Equity Quant team, as at 30 May 2018 unless otherwise stated. Past performance is no guide to future returns

 

Why Lyxor for  fixed  income?

       Why lyxor

*Source: Lyxor International Asset Management. Data as at 31/01/2018. Statements refer to European ETF market.

Risk Warning

THIS COMMUNICATION IS FOR ELIGIBLE COUNTERPARTIES OR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY

All views and opinions: Lyxor & SG Cross Asset & ETF Research teams as at 3 May 2018 unless otherwise stated. Past performance is no guide to future returns.

This document is for the exclusive use of investors acting on their own account and categorized either as “Eligible Counterparties” or “Professional Clients” within the meaning of Markets in Financial Instruments Directive 2004/39/EC. These products comply with the UCITS Directive (2009/65/EC). Société Générale and Lyxor International Asset Management (LIAM) recommend that investors read carefully the “investment risks” section of the product’s documentation (prospectus and KIID). The prospectus and KIID are available free of charge on www.lyxoretf.com, and upon request to client-services-etf@lyxor.com.

The products mentioned are the object of market-making contracts, the purpose of which is to ensure the liquidity of the products on the London Stock Exchange, assuming normal market conditions and normally functioning computer systems. Units of a specific UCITS ETF managed by an asset manager and purchased on the secondary market cannot usually be sold directly back to the asset manager itself. Investors must buy and sell units on a secondary market with the assistance of an intermediary (e.g. a stockbroker) and may incur fees for doing so. In addition, investors may pay more than the current net asset value when buying units and may receive less than the current net asset value when selling them. Updated composition of the product’s investment portfolio is available on www.lyxoretf.com. In addition, the indicative net asset value is published on the Reuters and Bloomberg pages of the product, and might also be mentioned on the websites of the stock exchanges where the product is listed.

Prior to investing in the product, investors should seek independent financial, tax, accounting and legal advice. It is each investor’s responsibility to ascertain that it is authorised to subscribe, or invest into this product. This document is of a commercial nature and not of a regulatory nature. This material is of a commercial nature and not a regulatory nature. This document does not constitute an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, from Société Générale, Lyxor Asset Management (together with its affiliates, Lyxor AM) or any of their respective subsidiaries to purchase or sell the product referred to herein.

Lyxor International Asset Management (LIAM), société par actions simplifiée having its registered office at Tours Société Générale, 17 cours Valmy, 92800 Puteaux (France), 418 862 215 RCS Nanterre, is authorized and regulated by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) under the UCITS Directive (2009/65/EU) and the AIFM Directive (2011/31/EU). LIAM is represented in the UK by Lyxor Asset Management UK LLP, which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK under Registration Number 435658. Société Générale is a French credit institution (bank) authorised by the Autorité de contrôle prudentiel et de résolution (the French Prudential Control Authority).

Research disclaimer

Lyxor International Asset Management (“LIAM”) or its employees may have or maintain business relationships with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that LIAM and its employees may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see appendix at the end of this report for the analyst(s) certification(s), important disclosures and disclaimers. Alternatively, visit our global research disclosure website www.lyxoretf.com/compliance.

Conflicts of interest 

This research contains the views, opinions and recommendations of Lyxor International Asset Management (“LIAM”) Cross Asset and ETF research analysts and/or strategists. To the extent that this research contains trade ideas based on macro views of economic market conditions or relative value, it may differ from the fundamental Cross Asset and ETF Research opinions and recommendations contained in Cross Asset and ETF Research sector or company research reports and from the views and opinions of other departments of LIAM and its affiliates. Lyxor Cross Asset and ETF research analysts and/or strategists routinely consult with LIAM sales and portfolio management personnel regarding market information including, but not limited to, pricing, spread levels and trading activity of ETFs tracking equity, fixed income and commodity indices. Trading desks may trade, or have traded, as principal on the basis of the research analyst(s) views and reports. Lyxor has mandatory research policies and procedures that are reasonably designed to (i) ensure that purported facts in research reports are based on reliable information and (ii) to prevent improper selective or tiered dissemination of research reports. In addition, research analysts receive compensation based, in part, on the quality and accuracy of their analysis, client feedback, competitive factors and LIAM’s total revenues including revenues from management fees and investment advisory fees and distribution fees.

Connect with us on linkedin