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11 feb 2019

China: Portfolio management             

            In the Year of the Pig

It’s the Year of the Pig in China– which marks the end of the 12-year cycle of the animals of Chinese astrology. As such, it’s a perfect time to look back, learn from the past and prepare for the new cycle. Chanchal Samadder does exactly that.

Leaving 2018 behind

There’s no doubt 2018 was a challenging year in China, as policymakers wrestled with the country’s debt issues and tariffs and the trade war took their toll. Corporate defaults mounted, shadow banking was targeted and credit growth contracted.  To alleviate the burden on a private sector suddenly bereft of liquidity, officials designed specific tax-cutting polices rather than resort to a re-run of the large infrastructure plans seen in 2008 and 2015. The damage done by the trade tensions materialised in the latter part of the year as trade figures dropped and housing investment soured.  

For all that, the Chinese market is still young and, while there’s not much history on which to base a strategic view, there are plenty of reasons to be constructive on the country’s assets from a tactical, shorter-term perspective. 

Controlling a slowdown

Why is that, given China’s economic growth could well slow further in H1? It’s not down to trade - even though the prospects of a temporary deal - or an extended truce - look greater, finding a lasting resolution will be challenging given the inescapable long-term rivalry between the US and China. Instead, the attraction is driven by policy. Growth should stabilise in H2, because there is more help on the way. We expect the PBOC to lower interbank lending rates and make further cuts to banks’ reserve requirements – which should free up more money for new lending to the private sector. China is also sticking with the large-scale tax cut strategy first deployed last year. The tax reduction programme for this year is set to be announced in March and could top 1.5 trillion yuan. The government has also outlined more tax breaks for small- and mid-sized businesses.

Chinese Credit growth suggests a stabilisation in activity
Chart 1

*Bloomberg economics China Credit Impulse: New credit as a % of GDP (Credit Impulse), provides a gauge of the boost that lending is providing to growth. The China Credit Impulse is calculated as: 12-month flow of total social finance, net of equity issuance, plus local government bond issuance, divided by the four quarter rolling sum of nominal GDP. Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Lyxor International Asset Management/ Cross Asset Research, Data as at 31/01/2019. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

The problems are priced in

The market may not be at the distressed levels of end-2008, but things are still pretty ugly and Chinese equities remain well below their long-term averages. Equity valuations have in fact reverted to 2014 levels and many domestic Chinese firms have taken the hit already and issued profit warnings. On the listed market, earnings expectations are for low double-digit growth for both onshore and offshore markets – 13.6% and 12.0% respectively for the MSCI China and the Shanghai composite indices. We don’t, however, expect a deterioration from here. We suspect the worst has been priced-in and that targeted stimulus (tax relief, relaxing regulations for margin trading) has put a floor under earnings downgrades. 

China is too big to ignore…

The size of the China market means even more than its potential weighting in global indices. Inflows from non-residents recovered further to almost return to their long-term upward trend in 2018, thanks to a rebound in external banking debt and strong portfolio inflows facilitated by the fast-track opening-up of domestic capital markets. In fact. China attracted $50bn of equity inflows and $103bn of bond inflows in the first three quarters of last year - in the process surpassing full-year figures for 2017 - despite a slowing economy and a depreciating currency. Fast-track capital market liberalisation was the crucial ingredient. Portfolio inflows are likely to stay strong again this year, especially with MSCI likely to quadruple the inclusion ratio of China’s A shares in their bellwether emerging market benchmark, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. All told, China A shares should account for around 15% of the index. Meanwhile, FTSE will include China in its EM indices for the first time. This should help fuel portfolio investments for few more years yet.

MSCI’s actions could be a substantial support for A-Share performance

  • On 31 May 2018, 233 China A Large Cap shares were added to the                                     MSCI Emerging market Index using a two-step inclusion process 
Chart 2

Source: MSCI, based on data used for MSCI ‘s May 2018 semi- annual index review. At a hypothetical 100% inclusion (which may or may not occur in the future), China would comprise 42% of the index, based on current market capitalization. All figures are approximate.

…and too disruptive to dismiss

China has become unavoidable for investors wanting exposure to the world’s new tech titans. According to the 2018 Kleiner Perkins Internet Trend report, nine of the top 20 internet companies in the world (by market valuation) are Chinese. On the listed market, China technology stocks have a weighting in global indices that is twice as high as the Japan and European technology sectors combined. China tech stocks have even become bigger than Korea, Taiwan and India combined (based on MSCI data). In our view, if you want to capture the opportunities on offer, there’s no better index than the MSCI China. Here’s why.

If, like us, you believe this index represents the truest and best reflection of China’s economy, why not consider investing in our ETF? With a TER of just 0.30% it is the cheapest Chinese equity ETF your money can buy.

Find out more about our Lyxor MSCI China UCITS ETF

Chinese astrology suggests those born in previous years of the pig are diligent, compassionate, and generous. They set goals and devote all their energy to achieving them. Calm when facing trouble, these “Pigs” handle things with care. They take responsibility to finish what they are engaged in. They are due some luck with their investments in 2019. Perhaps, if you adhere to those traits, you can expect the same! 

Sources: All views & opinions, Lyxor ETF Equity Strategy as at 7 February 2019, unless otherwise stated. Statements on Lyxor’s credentials vs. peers refer to the European UCITS ETF market only.

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Lyxor International Asset Management (“LIAM”) or its employees may have or maintain business relationships with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that LIAM and its employees may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see appendix at the end of this report for the analyst(s) certification(s), important disclosures and disclaimers. Alternatively, visit our global research disclosure website

Conflicts of interest 

This research contains the views, opinions and recommendations of Lyxor International Asset Management (“LIAM”) Cross Asset and ETF research analysts and/or strategists. To the extent that this research contains trade ideas based on macro views of economic market conditions or relative value, it may differ from the fundamental Cross Asset and ETF Research opinions and recommendations contained in Cross Asset and ETF Research sector or company research reports and from the views and opinions of other departments of LIAM and its affiliates. Lyxor Cross Asset and ETF research analysts and/or strategists routinely consult with LIAM sales and portfolio management personnel regarding market information including, but not limited to, pricing, spread levels and trading activity of ETFs tracking equity, fixed income and commodity indices. Trading desks may trade, or have traded, as principal on the basis of the research analyst(s) views and reports. Lyxor has mandatory research policies and procedures that are reasonably designed to (i) ensure that purported facts in research reports are based on reliable information and (ii) to prevent improper selective or tiered dissemination of research reports. In addition, research analysts receive compensation based, in part, on the quality and accuracy of their analysis, client feedback, competitive factors and LIAM’s total revenues including revenues from management fees and investment advisory fees and distribution fees.

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