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27 jun 2019

4 equity calls for the summer

This week, we take stock of opportunities in equities ahead of the summer, following up on our guide to bond investing last week. The recent worsening of the macro-economic backdrop calls for caution across the board as much uncertainty lies ahead.


1. More turbulence ahead for global equities

Markets may not fully discount trade war risks and the full extent of its impact on global trade, particularly as we enter the very late stage of the economic cycle. Equity volatility tends to pick up during the end of the economic cycle and remain in a high regime until recession kicks in.

Although every business cycle is different, they tend to follow a similar pattern. Convention has it that when economic activity starts deteriorating, sectors with greater visibility on earnings and dividend payments such as healthcare and utilities tend to prove more resilient. Quality income or volatility reduction strategies could also prove beneficial.

Invest at the different stages of the business cycle

How to choose the right sectors at the right time:


esg graph


2. The US braces for a slowdown

In the US, the recent escalation of the US/China trade war will feed into third quarter economic data and increases further the likelihood of a global slowdown and/or US recession. The Fed already signaled its readiness to act and the options market is currently pricing about three rate cuts before year end.  Policy support should allow the S&P 500 to regain some ground. That is, until a recession materialises sometime next year.

3. Europe faces many challenges 

In the euro area, Germany is facing some cyclical headwinds, while the outcome of Brexit, and for Italy, remain uncertain. Manufacturing activity is sliding, but services have remained resilient so far, bolstered by solid domestic demand. A further decline in manufacturing could spill over to capex, hiring and eventually private consumption. Weaker global trade and manufacturing is also likely to weigh further on profit growth in the coming months. Furthermore, the ECB has limited room for manoeuvre, particularly with sovereign rates already at such depressed levels.

In our view, eurozone equities will continue to lag the US, so we’re no more than neutral. We’d rather avoid Financials given the increasingly low rate environment and policy uncertainty in the UK and Italy. We maintain a preference for higher yielding and non-cyclical sectors such as Healthcare or Utilities, and quality income strategies.

4. Cherry picking in emerging markets

There would be no winner in a full-blown trade war between the US and China - see our Trade War Impact Indicator for a view of the most vulnerable countries. The latest data in Chinese activity point to further growth weakness, supply chain disruption, and a slump in global trade.

While the market may well remain volatile in the short-term, China itself looks to be the value trade, with domestic equities looking increasingly attractive. Policy support is likely to floor downside risks on earnings. Additionally, the opening-up of the market and the increase in the weight of A-shares in MSCI indices should act as a catalyst for inflows. In our view, Chinese equities should be seen as a strategic allocation in their own right, alongside traditional broad EM portfolios.

Meanwhile, India is one of the few bright spots within the developing world. The local equity market has relatively less exposure to global frictions, and one of the lowest correlations with the Chinese stock market. We believe India could continue to outperform Chinese equities over the coming weeks.

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Conflicts of interest 

This research contains the views, opinions and recommendations of Lyxor International Asset Management (“LIAM”) Cross Asset and ETF research analysts and/or strategists. To the extent that this research contains trade ideas based on macro views of economic market conditions or relative value, it may differ from the fundamental Cross Asset and ETF Research opinions and recommendations contained in Cross Asset and ETF Research sector or company research reports and from the views and opinions of other departments of LIAM and its affiliates. Lyxor Cross Asset and ETF research analysts and/or strategists routinely consult with LIAM sales and portfolio management personnel regarding market information including, but not limited to, pricing, spread levels and trading activity of ETFs tracking equity, fixed income and commodity indices. Trading desks may trade, or have traded, as principal on the basis of the research analyst(s) views and reports. Lyxor has mandatory research policies and procedures that are reasonably designed to (i) ensure that purported facts in research reports are based on reliable information and (ii) to prevent improper selective or tiered dissemination of research reports. In addition, research analysts receive compensation based, in part, on the quality and accuracy of their analysis, client feedback, competitive factors and LIAM’s total revenues including revenues from management fees and investment advisory fees and distribution fees.

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